Guest essay by David Archibald
Wiggle-matching has been used by the best. Hubert Lamb, considered to be the most meticulous climatologist of all time, used wiggle-matching in this wind data graph he published in 1988:
He had plotted up 600 years of wind data at London, noted a 200 year periodicity and copied the line 200 years to the right to make a forecast.
One of the puzzles of the last 300 years of climate is the temperature drop of 1740. It came out of the blue after a number of warm years in the 1730s. There is nothing in the Be10 record or the volcanic record to suggest a cause.
It came a couple of years after the peak of a fairly strong solar cycle. The event of 1740 attracted the attention of Briffa and Jones in their 2006 paper “Unusual Climate in Northwest Europe During the Period 1730 to 1745 Based on Instrumental and Documentary Data”. From the abstract of that paper,” This study focuses on one of the most interesting times of the early instrumental period in northwest Europe (from 1730–1745) attempting to place the extremely cold year of 1740 and the unusual warmth of the 1730s decade in a longer context.” The only conclusion that they came to was climate might vary more than is commonly accepted.
So what does that period up to 1740 wiggle-match with? It matches with the warmth of the last 30 years:
The graph above shows the Central England Temperature (CET) record from 1703 to 1745 as the blue line. Plotted on it is the CET record from 1978 to 2012. Normally when you align 34 year lengths of temperature records you don’t get any correlation. The correlation on this particular matchup is 0.112. The statisticians amongst us can argue over whether or not anything can be read into that. If something can be read into it, we only have to wait two years to experience the consequences. The spike down is also prominent in the de Bilt record:
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Brrrr! Not what I would prefer, and certainly more dangerous than warming.
Could of had something to do with the PDO and AMO.
Well even if we don’t understand the causes, and even if we have to suffer a debilitating cold spell..it would at least kill off the CAGW nonsense….you would think?
Hopefully confined to the Northern Hemisphere like “global” warming…
“The correlation on this particular matchup is 0.112.”
I presume you mean r²? Sorry, I’m not impressed. Wiggle-matching is interesting, and a way to look at data to spot possible relationships or mechanisms, but that’s about it. I’d say the relationship here, if any, is very tenuous, with an r² of less than 0.4.
The UK Met recently called an emergency meeting with the world’s top climate scientists to discuss how melting polar ice is radically altering that country’s weather. A permanent blocking high pressure system has formed over Greenland. This high has, effectively, caused the Arctic to invade the UK with increasing ferocity. The state is now so extreme that the Met is calling a meeting of the world’s climate experts to discuss what the future may hold.
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Yes Dorothy, it really IS climate change
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Dr. Slingo, Britain’s top climate scientist notes how persistent high pressure systems are blocking the polar wind pattern from moving. What this means is that the weather simply cannot change. Increasingly, the UK has become a part of the Arctic. Slingo noted to ITV News:
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Its called a “blocking pattern”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Block_(meteorology)
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If this is how climate change could manifest itself, then we need to understand that as a matter of urgency.
http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2013/04/12/human-climate-change-is-wrecking-the-jet-stream-uk-met-office-calls-emergency-meeting/
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Absolutely no one can deny that the weather is changing in the extreme. Keep your eyes on the arctic.
More research on the Greenland blocking high
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/03/21/record-blocking-patterns-fueling-extreme-washington-d-c-march-weather/
As stated, a blocking pattern like this ranks among the strongest ever; to further illustrate that fact, I have plotted the 500 mb height composite anomaly from the 12 separate dates on which the AO plunged to its most negative values in recorded history. The composite, shown below, reveals positive anomalies in excess of 350m near Greenland – neatly matching the current block’s intensity.
One more remarkable aspect of this major league block: observations over Greenland are threatening to break the worldwide record for highest barometric pressure of 1083.3 mb, set on Dec. 31, 1968 in Siberia. NCEP’s Ocean Prediction Center analyzed the surface map (from Tuesday night) below, which features a high pressure center of at least 1074 mb over Greenland.
jai mitchell says:
“Keep your eyes on the arctic.”
What mitchell really means is, ‘Pay no attention to the Antarctic’, because the Antarctic falsifies everything mitchell is saying: Total global ice cover is increasing. Long term polar ice is rising [the red line]. But mitchell ignores facts that do not support his climate alarmist world view.
There is a clear cycle of around 208 years in a number of solar and climate proxies as well as in the solar cycle. Please see these links:
http://cyclesresearchinstitute.wordpress.com/2010/06/27/cycles-in-sunspot-number-reconstruction-for-11000-years/
http://cyclesresearchinstitute.wordpress.com/2011/07/13/analysis-of-be10-records-as-a-solar-irradiance-proxy/
http://cyclesresearchinstitute.wordpress.com/2012/11/13/sunspot-number-reconstruction-by-leif-svalgaard-and-proxy-cycles-of-104-and-208-years/
jai mitchell says:
June 18, 2013 at 9:25 pm
So its the melting icecap thats causing the blocking high is it?
Sigh! IF it does head that way, standbye for the rush to any form of nuclear energy plant that can be built ASAP, under the new post Obama World Energy Emergency Management plan, renamed as World Obama Management Energy Nuclear plan WOMEN Plan ,,,[no gender insult intended!!], just good warm world housekeeping..
jai mitchell says:
June 18, 2013 at 9:30 pm
A blocking high possibly caused by the Ap Index or the EUV being very week.
David, you missed the most interesting part. What has the frequency of the southwest wind at London done in the past 20 years?
I would guess that, given the low temperature crisis that jai mitchell is worried about, that we might just be at the nadir on the graph predicted by Lamb. Southwest wind should tend to bring balmy air to Britain — and thus a low frequency of southwest winds should correlate to lower temperatures.
If Lamb’s prediction is right, then the crisis will start to abate soon.
I continue to believe that kinetic energy should be a primary factor in the climate models. When conditions in the climate system are such that incoming solar radiation is efficiently converted to kinetic energy in the atmosphere, the remaining energy available for heat is lowered. Conversely, when conditions are not favorable to kinetic energy development the energy balance shifts to favor heating of the atmosphere and re radiation out into space.
I’ll spend the rest of my years trying to get a coherent hypothesis together and then discover I am completely wrong! That’s the beauty of science; it is a marvelous journey that is never “settled”.
jai mitchell says:
June 18, 2013 at 9:30 pm
More research on the Greenland blocking high
Does that have anything to do with the extremely warm temps in Alaska right now or is that a separate phenomenon. I’ve heard reports of temps ranging from 82 – 98 degrees across the state after having unusually cold temps until just recently.
I often wonder on which planet some internet commenters reside. This thread has me wondering the same. But okay, sure, we’ll keep our eyes on the Arctic. Because, you know, with everything else that’s been going on, somehow we forgot to look there. Right?
jai mitchell says:
June 18, 2013 at 9:25 pm
“The state is now so extreme that the Met is calling a meeting of the world’s climate experts to discuss what the future may hold.”
Why is the Met calling this meeting? Clearly, the Met is at a loss as to what is going on or they would tell us what is going on. Are they looking for help? Seems unlikely because all the Met understands are their own computer models. Could it be that (1) they are attempting to change the topic from their own disastrous performance of recent years and (2) they are calling upon friends to help them recover from the implosion of their rationale for claims of CAGW, also known as creating a new consensus?
If the blocking high will be stuck there for years then England, parts of Europe, and parts of Asia face another Little Ice Age. Now what does AGW have to do with that? We cannot lower CO2 emissions dramatically enough to prevent such a Little Ice Age. Are you suggesting that the blocking high will remain in place until emissions are lowered dramatically? I think that you have pushed into an area of theory where even Alarmists fear to tread.
Is everyone watching how the climate alarmists are slowly turning themselves around.
Once was global warming (that stopped 17 or so years ago),
then climate change, (not much happening there, still up and down all over the place, is it has always been)
then extreme weather..(hurricanes etc mostly declining)…
. next step is global cooling…. just watch…. 🙂
Jai’s already on the march down that laneway !
> Southwest wind should tend to bring balmy air to Britain
Also, a large blocking high over Greenland should cause less southwest wind in London. This would be compatible with (but *not demand*) similar blocking high patterns 200 years ago. And 400 years ago. And so on.
“The only conclusion that they came to was climate might vary more than is commonly accepted.”
If this was just for one year, 1740, then “climate” may be the wrong word. So, substitute the word “weather.” The real issue is who gets to say what is “commonly accepted”? They didn’t ask me. I’m pretty convinced that both weather and climate vary considerably. If it is very cold or very warm in 2 years, I won’t be surprised or concerned. Interested, yes.
How well does the 34-year CET record preceding the 1740 event correlate with random 34-year CET records (i.e. other than 1978 – 2012)?
Reblogged this on The Next Grand Minimum and commented:
This is an interesting observation that needs more study.
I think the correlation of the two graphs is coincidental and a micro ice age is unlikely.
In the UK we have had a succession of mild winters in the nineties and noughties, this has caused the more ill-informed climatologists to metaphorically run around in ever decreasing circles telling us we are all doomed! The last four winters have been colder than average, because that is what averages do! To demonstrate the ineptitude of these so called scientists, Slingo and co have called a meeting to discuss the current “extreme” weather and it’s relationship with AGW. Sorry to disappoint, but it is neither extreme nor AGW induced. No doubt they have come to the very opposite conclusion because although the science says “no”, their mantra says “yes”!
Jai,
To the best of my understanding melting ice would release enthalpy of fusion, warming the ocean and thereafter the atmosphere, causing low pressure, not high.
Have you ever watched the NOAA 12000m animation? Cooling and descending air is the definition of high pressure. It is the reason we have subtropical deserts. It is the reason we see high pressure anomalies throughout the Arctic these days. Shifting here and there, but very persistent overall. The high pressure does not result from the melting ice, it causes the ice to melt.
The science is simple and well understood. The optical properties of ice are surprisingly similar to water. UV goes into it as if it were butter. IR not much. Pretty much why it reads blue to us when backlit.
Try not to demonize change. The winds today are the winds of change, but they are the very same winds that have blown since time immemorial.
http://geosciencebigpicture.com/2013/04/14/something-in-us-loves-a-witch/
Air temps in the Arctic are lower than normal for this time of the year and may even stay as low as if not lower than 1993 and 1980, leading to a shorter melt season? Interested to hear what others may think about this.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
All due to CO2 of course, /sarc